Societal Resiliency

After the 1982-1983 El Niño struck Peru, there was a massive rise in armed conflict and political violence associated with a group known as "Sendero Luminoso" or Shining Path. Scholars have related the Peruvian government's responses to the natural disasters and the rise of social and political unrest and violence (Mitchell et al. 2024). These studies conclude that poor government response to the destruction caused by major natural disasters can "foster grievances and aid rebel recruitment, increasing risks for armed conflicts" (Mitchell et al. 2024:1493). This can be tied back to the Moche people remaking societies as they expanded their empire into the lands around them even in the face of a series of major climatic events. Did the Moche also have a "poor governmental response" to the natural disasters? Was their response to increase or rebuild with increased resilience or did they continue to expand and over extend their system? Later societies in the Moche Valley turned to increased intensity in ritual sacrifice during a period of severe natural disasters, likely to demonstrate potential power over nature (Prieto et al 2019)  The Moche society which practiced both ritual and real warfare along with a centering of ritual sacrifice in their culture may have lost them support of their subjugated communities or their responses may have led to civil unrest such as occurred following the 1980 El Niño event in Peru.  

Since it seems that every century there is one super El Niño, the Moche people could have faced several of them during their cultural reign. The coast of Peru, like all global coastal systems, are subject to potential devastating climatic events. Evidence from societies on the coast of Ecuador contemporary with the Moche followed a distinct cultural and settlement strategy to that of the Moche. Southern coastal Ecuadorian settlements were small and dispersed across multiple environmental niches, sharing resources across communities and therefore sharing and mitigating risk (Reitz and Masucci 2004). The Moche followed a different strategy with larger settlements and extreme control over all aspects of society. They could have managed risks better if they weren’t overextended and lost sight of the true force of nature. Ultimately, cultural success and survival may not be due solely to environmental impacts or government policies, but a combination of these over time. 

Currently, Peru is in the beginning stages of facing the next super El Niño and electing a new president. Coastal regions of Peru, which could be the most affected by the super El Niño, rely heavily on industrial fishing and building along the coast often continues to disregard the natural flow of water. This means building in seasonal river banks and inside the dry river beds. Once again a failure of cultural memory and appreciation of the power of nature. A direct line can be drawn from the destruction of the 1980s El Niño, the lack of government response, the rise of the rebel group Sendero Luminoso and the establishment of the authoritarian government of Alberto Fujimori. What is in store for Peru next? The coming of a Super El Niño will be a test to how Peru and its government have learned from the past. The survival of the new authoritarian government is literally dependent on how they respond to this El Niño and how they are preparing for it. 

Peru and the rest of the world should take a lesson from the Moche. Long term survival and success depends not on weathering only one storm, but how prepared you are for the coming ones. The project has clearly demonstrated the original aim - a connection between societal choices and strategies and resilience and survival vs downfall and collapse in the face of climatic downturns and changes (Germinder 2026).